An AI Teammate That Conducts Military Operations - Simulations in War & Business
Generative AI has a lot more to offer beyond productivity
The South China Morning Post reported on a new study by researchers at the National Defense University in China that created an AI-powered “virtual commander” to oversee war game exercises. While most generative AI solutions are focused on enabling productivity, the research highlights how the technology's unique capabilities can also be valuable in simulations.
This “virtual commander”, strictly confined to a laboratory at the Joint Operations College of the National Defence University in Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, mirrors the human commander in all ways, from experience to thought patterns to personality – and even their flaws.
In large-scale computer war games involving all branches of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the AI commander has been granted unprecedented supreme command authority, learning and growing fast in the endlessly evolving virtual wars.
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Campaign-level military simulations often require the participation of human commanders to make on-the-spot decisions in response to unexpected events. But the number of senior PLA commanders and their availability is very limited, making it impossible for them to participate in a large number of war simulations…
The AI commander can stand in for human commanders when they cannot participate in a large-scale virtual battle or exercise command authority. Within the boundary of the laboratory, it can freely exercise this power without any interference from humans.
The study also considered how the “AI commander” could exhibit distinct personality traits or attempt to replicate the strategic and tactical styles of famous military leaders from history. You can imagine how this can also be applied to contemporary military leaders to enable troops to understand the expected style of their commanders better so they are not learning that for the first time in combat. Alternatively, it could be used to reflect the style of military leaders among adversaries for similar reasons.
Filling a Void
A 2021 analysis by the Institute for the Study of War emphasized the important role of wargaming in the Chinese military. It also pointed out that wargaming was particularly important to the Chinese because it lacked “contemporary operational experience.” In other words, China has not been in a recent “hot war” where its forces were exposed to combat situations.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is faced with the challenge of preparing for future warfare during peacetime as a force that lacks contemporary operational experience. Among the methods through which the PLA seeks to enhance its combat readiness are sophisticated wargaming and realistic, force-on-force exercises. Chinese military leaders regard wargaming (bingqi tuiyan, 兵棋推演) as an important technique by which to “learn warfare from the laboratory” for training purposes and to promote insights on the dynamics of future combat.
Insight for Businesses
Given the gaps in senior leadership availability and the perceived importance of wargaming, it is logical that China’s military would turn to generative AI to enable training exercises to continue. It is the closest you can get to a simulated human working alongside you. Might it also be logical for enterprises to explore these capabilities further?
War is not business, despite the overwrought metaphors. However, militaries and enterprise-scale businesses are both large organizations that deal with competition, fields of engagement, and dynamic circumstances. Simulations are known to be valuable even if they are never exact replicas of reality. They can reveal unexpected activities or responses, proactively identify opportunities and risks, and facilitate learning among leaders, managers, and front-line personnel.
Despite this, simulations are not widely used in business. They are most common in finance, supply chain, and manufacturing. The risks associated with making errors in these disciplines have created a multi-billion-dollar market. However, simulations have typically been restricted to considering scenarios driven by structured data. There has not been a convenient way to inject subjective and unstructured data into these simulations. Scenarios that are heavily influenced by human conversation and decision-making are underserved.
Generative AI presents an opportunity for businesses to embrace simulations that involve these subjective and human elements. This can have positive impacts on the functional areas that are using simulation today and on those that have typically ignored it. For example, business strategy, marketing, sales, hiring, staffing, and many other functions can now take advantage of simulations for leanring and scenario planning.
It is important not to overestimate the ability of simulations to predict the future. They are merely a tool for becoming smarter about what could happen and what could be done. Military leaders may be showing that more pedestrian economic pursuits can also benefit from generative AI beyond the productivity revolution.
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