OpenAI Doubled Revenue and is Doing More Business Than Azure - New Reports
Momentum is building behind the AI pioneer
OpenAI’s generative AI market leadership has converted to solid revenue and customer growth. Recent reporting by The Information revealed that CEO Sam Altman told company employees “OpenAI has more than doubled its annualized revenue to $3.4 billion in the past six months or so.”
With continued growth at a comparable rate, those figures suggest OpenAI will finish 2024 with over $4 billion in annual revenue. The biggest revenue driver is ChatGPT. According to the article’s sources, it represents about $3.2 billion in annualized revenue, 94% of the total. If this were the consumer edition alone, it would suggest over 13 million consumers are paying the $20 monthly ChatGPT fee. More likely, 8-10 million consumers are subscribers, and the balance is coming from businesses. According to The Information:
That revenue rate puts the ChatGPT-maker far ahead of its rivals. Last fall, for instance, rival Anthropic told investors it was generating revenue at a $100 million annualized rate, with plans to reach more than $850 million in annualized revenue by the end of 2024. Cohere, a Canadian OpenAI rival, was generating just $22 million in annualized revenue in April.
Ahead of Azure
The remaining $200 million in annualized revenue is supposedly coming from payments for access to OpenAI’s foundation models. It is unclear whether this includes revenue sharing from Microsoft’s Azure, but it is very likely it does.
Another article from The Information reports that Altman told staffers that providing model access is a $1 billion annualized revenue business. That would suggest it reflects about 29% of total revenue, while ChatGPT for consumers and enterprises is closer to 70% of total revenue. There is an inherent risk in putting too much stock in rumors reported by Silicon Valley tech publishers. However, we are seeing some consistency around the fact that OpenAI is now generating billions of dollars in annual revenue, most of which is through ChatGPT.
The Information also suggests that OpenAI is not generating more revenue from selling access to its AI foundation models than Microsoft Azure because it hit the billion-dollar annualized run rate months ahead of the cloud giant.
The growth of OpenAI’s API business has put pressure on Microsoft’s rival business of reselling OpenAI’s models. Managers at Microsoft recently changed the way they charge customers to use Azure OpenAI Service to take some of the steam out of OpenAI’s customer wins, according to someone involved in the decision.
For instance, Microsoft cut the minimum amount customers must spend to reserve servers on the Azure OpenAI Service to guarantee access during periods of peak demand. Microsoft dropped the price 25% to roughly $185,000 per month for OpenAI’s GPT-4 model, according to someone with knowledge of the move.
Azure originally lured enterprise users to its OpenAI Service by convincing them it would provide a more reliable and secure service. For much of 2023, the reliability and stability claims around the API were likely true. However, OpenAI is winning over more enterprises with more consistency and earlier access to its newest model releases.
OpenAI provides Microsoft access to its new models at the same time it announces them. However, Azure typically took about four weeks to test and provision those models in 2023 and early 2024. More recently, that lag time has decreased, specifically for the GPT-4o model.
Revenue Builds Buyer Confidence
The most important element of this news is that it will likely help OpenAI extend its lead. Technology buyers take many factors into account regarding vendor selection. Product quality and effectiveness are important, as is business viability. Many enterprise buyers are reluctant to bet on start-ups that are pre-revenue as it creates more uncertainty about their market staying power.
Granted, revenue does not mean profitability. OpenAI still has high costs and faces financial risk. It also is being compared with its AI model rivals. That includes well-financed tech giants such as Google and Meta. It also includes startups like Anthropic, which have far less revenue and proven business viability. Anthropic’s latest AI foundation model may be better than GPT-4o based on some benchmarks. However, the company is almost certainly viewed as a bigger risk for any enterprise considering a long-term bet on an AI partner, given its smaller customer and revenue base.
Higher revenue means that OpenAI can more easily cover expenses and invest more in product development, marketing, sales, and acquisitions than rivals without having to raise as much outside capital. The Information also reported that OpenAI has a 200-person sales team today, up from 10 in 2023.
Many thanks to our title sponsor.
In the long run, Microsoft can still benefit from the success of OpenAI in other ways.
Microsoft can use OpenAI's technology indefinitely and receive a 75% share of its profits after OpenAI repays the initial investment, until the full $1.3 billion investment is recouped, after which the profit share will be 49%.
Furthermore, OpenAI must also pay Microsoft a 20% commission on API sales to operate its AI business in its Azure data centers.
It is reported that the gross margin of Microsoft Azure OpenAI services is about 40%, which has improved over time as AI models become more efficient. Given the reduced price OpenAI pays for using Microsoft's servers, OpenAI's API business can generate similar profits.
For every $1 in revenue that Microsoft earns from Azure OpenAI services, it pays 20 cents to OpenAI; and for every $1 in revenue that OpenAI earns from its own API sales, it pays 20 cents to Microsoft. Essentially, the revenue sharing between the two companies largely cancels each other out.
I was suprised to read that ChatGPT is responsible for such a large share of the revenue; it also makes them vunerable in a way.